Let The Madness Descend

Is it just me, or are the close seasons getting shorter and shorter.  I mean, it was only five minutes ago that Germany brought the World Cup back from Brazil.  And here we are, on the start line for another Scottish domestic season.

Except of course for those teams in the lower leagues who have been competing in the early rounds of Petro-chemical-or-whatever-it’s-called Cup (At least we knew who B&Q were when they sponsored the thing).  Oh and at the time of writing all of our teams will have been, saw and been conquered in Europe – only for Celtic to receive a pardon in the shape of Legia Warsaw’s fielding of an ineligible player.  Still at least the Scotland national team look in decient shape.  Just as well their opening qualifier for Euro 2016 is that team that brought the World Cup back from Brazil…

Conventional wisdom dictates that the Scotland national team will be the only outlet for thrills and spills in the Scottish game.  Conventional wisdom dictates that Celtic will be Scottish champions before tea and the true race is for second & that "The Championship" is where it's at...  baby!  That might be true, but if there’s anything to be learned from Celtic’s cuffing at the hands of Legia Warsaw then it is that there are clearly teething troubles surrounding their new manager Ronny Deila and his assistant John Collins.

Celtic have seen their side that won a League and Scottish Cup double while reaching the last 16 of the European Cup sold without the quality maintained.  Maybe that’s an issue with the scouting, but with the departure of Neil Lennon, Celtic may well be at their weakest since Rangers meltdown.  I suspect that it won’t be a given that Celtic will finish as far ahead as they had been. It is conceivable that Celtic will take time to settle into this campaign.  In the possible event that they falter, who would be best placed to capitalise.

Second placed Motherwell have not added to their squad to date, however have not lost any of their players either.  A top six finish awaits for Motherwell, however there is the suspicion that the two teams that pundits thought were better than Motherwell will finish ahead of Motherwell this season.  Aberdeen will be a year older and wiser, have kept their players and added David Goodwillie to their squad.  This Aberdeen side are favourites to finish second, but given the correct circumstances could topple Celtic.  It’s not that inconceivable.

The other side much fancied last season, Dundee United, have seen Ryan Gauld and Andrew Robertson sold to Sporting Lisbon and to Hull City respectively.  Funnily enough, United’s season hinges not on adequately replacing Gauld but Robertson.  Like Aberdeen, Dundee United will have a years experience under their belt and will be the better for it.  Third for Dundee United it is then.  Motherwell & Scottish Cup winners St Johnstone will be secure within the top six, though who joins them will be either Inverness, Ross County or maybe Dundee.

Next Season's Title contenders? Aberdeen puting Celtic out of the Scottish Cup in February

Unlike last season, there will be competition at the bottom.  My own team St Mirren are something of an unknown quality this season. The release of Danny Lennon and the promotion to manager of Tommy Craig has seen familiar faces leave (McGowan, McGregor & Van Zanten) and unknowns come in.  The highest profile is probably James Marwood, son of the former Blades midfielder Brian, from Gateshead.  Possibly the key signings might be the return of Jerome Tesselar from Doctor Who (Tesselar…  Tesselector…  oh do keep up) and Ellis Plummer from Manchester City, who will be hoping to follow the footsteps of Paul Dummett by coming here on loan and after a spell make his way into the first team – though clearly not the bit that stipulates that he receives hate tweets from Uruguay.  I still think at the moment we’re too light at the back but need defenders to help us get up the table.

So who will finish in the bottom two?  The favourites to go down will be the two promoted teams.  I think Dundee will survive though it will be interesting to see Paul Hartley crowbar Paul McGowan and Gary Harkins into the same team – a feat that Danny Lennon couldn’t achieve.  Hamilton on the other hand may well struggle, though they have resigned Dougie Imrie who last looked good the last time he pulled on a red and white hooped jersey.  I think though that Hamilton will be fighting it out with Partick come the end of the season.  Partick’s squad have been depleated, though they have brought in Ryan Stevenson and  Abdul Osman.  Partick’s problem though is that they were a good team going forward but could not score.  In the annuls of Scottish Football, there have been quite a few teams that were relegated because of their inability to put the ball into the back of the net.

While the top flight has all the exposure, the old First Division (now cringingly called the “Championship”) was always the more interesting league because it was always the most difficult to get out of.  Since 1990 only five sides have been relegated and come straight back up (Falkirk in 1993/4, Dundee United in 95/6, Hibernian in 98/9, Dunfermline in 1999/2000 and Inverness in 2009/10).  It’s this feat that both Hearts and Hibernian have to emulate to return to the top flight.  Falkirk, Queen of The South and Raith Rovers will be the big challengers that were contenders in this division last season.  The added spice will come from last season’s League 1 (or, in old money Second Division) champions, Rangers.

Many people think that Rangers will win this championship, having put their money where their mouths are by bringing back Kris Boyd and Kenny Miller.  Except, that’s the problem – Rangers are sailing close to the wind by making exactly the same mistakes that saw them liquidated in 2012.  Meanwhile Ranger’s problems last year were caused by a lack of grip in midfield resulting in the long ball to Jon Daly.  This worked in the Second Division, but they were found out when the played better teams.  And Albion Rovers.  Nah, I think Heart’s have turned themselves around better than Rangers and will take the automatic slot.  Not that I think Rangers will necessarily get up through the playoffs either.

For all that Celtic were the dominant team of Scottish Football, they suffered surprising reverses that showed how tenuous their grip at the top is.  That Kilmarnock, Hearts, St Mirren, Aberdeen and St Johnstone have won trophies during Celtic’s supposed dominance has shown that they are not that dominant.  With a change in manager, Celtic are maybe more vulnerable than they have been for some time.  I think that how quickly their new management team beds down will be key to them retaining the championship.  If there are still issues around the team come, maybe September, then the other teams may smell blood.  Sorry, I’m just not confident that this Celtic team will be miles ahead come Christmas, but I think experience will see them over the finish line this time.  With that, let the games begin.

Stick or Twist?

Various Kremlinologists will have seen the signals a long while ago, a section of the Buddies have been after it for a while, so why has St Mirren’s decision not to offer Danny Lennon a new contract seem like some sort of anti-climax?

Danny Lennon talks to his assistant, and successor as St Mirren manager, Tommy Craig

The first point to be made is that there is a case for the removal of Lennon as St Mirren manager.   The team at his disposal have not covered themselves in glory this season, despite the results picking up at the end of the season.  The best part of the season for St Mirren was the period from the end of September (when we should have beaten Aberdeen, but settled for a draw) to the Scottish Cup replay with Queen of The South when 4 of our wins 10 came.  Of that 8 game period we picked up 15 points out of 24 and only lost to Dundee United (4-0, when they were beginning to fly too…).  The rest of the season though has been a struggle, where we have tried to compensate for being thin at the back. Those area’s have been problem areas for some time, even going back to when we signed Hasslebank, Thompson & co we needed strengthening at the back.  Instead this season we released one of our defenders, Lee Mair, to Partick Thistle.

That spurt though was down to Lennon changing tactics, playing a tight 4-4-1-1 with tucked in midfielders.  As a result, we’ve looked too much like we’ve been on the back foot – which doesn’t suit us, and sacrificed our expansive players, which when we’ve gone for it we’ve looked rather impressive.

That’s the thing though, where there is a case for removing Lennon there was also a case for keeping him.  St Mirren’s first silverware since 1987, this season our highest finish since that period.  When we’ve played well, we’ve looked threatening.  It’s just that we haven’t played well enough in enough games. 

I can understand if the St Mirren board were split about whether to offer a new contract or not.  I’m not sure myself what I would have done but would have marginally come down to nor renewing solely on Lennon’s recruitment policy & his reticence to deal with his defence.  That indecisiveness has carried forward to the appointment of Lennon’s successor as the highly experienced Tommy Craig.

He has been a fixture on the British coaching scene for several decades, but as far as I can remember I think this is his first opportunity as a manager in his own right.  His most famous moment though was when he was the first team coach to Billy McNeil’s Manager at Celtic during their centenary season.  A season that memorably saw them win a league and cup double.  My reservations are totally down to the fact that we are appointing from within and appointing Lennon’s Assistant.  If change was needed, surely a fresh new coaching team was required rather than just sacrificing the head honcho.  If Lennon was such a failure, why isn’t Craig seen as one?

I do wonder if the St Mirren board fell into the trap of believing that “something must be done” without knowing exactly what needed to be done.  I think that they did the right thing, but didn’t handle things in the best manner.  Appointing Craig is also a bit of a departure for St Mirren as most of our appointments from Jimmy Bone onwards have been bright young turks. I do remain convinced that this particular change is a change that will work.

After The Split

In the reorganisation of Scottish Football, one thing that stayed with the 12 team top league was the split.  This season with the championship race over and Hearts confirmed as the team dropping into the ridiculously named “Championship”, there seems to be nothing left to play for until the Scottish Cup Final in mid May.  Far from it.

McGowan & Hanlon tussle during Hibs 0-0 draw at Greenhill Road on November 23rd

With Celtic’s lap of honour around the top six sides, the other teams in the top six are essentially playing for places while Aberdeen and Motherwell are fighting for European places.  Aberdeen are in pole position to take the runners up spot ahead on Motherwell.  While both sides meet on the last day of the season – in what television hopes will be a shoot out for second place – the nature of the top six means that every fixture will be hard.

Most attention though will be on the fight to avoid the play-off place in the bottom six.  St Mirren’s unlikely (at half time at least – has any Saints fan seen a worse defensive display since the Coughlan era?) win against Motherwell shot them into the pack.  Partick Thistle now sit in the play-off place, but are only a point behind St Mirren and Ross County.  Even Seventh Place Hibernian are not safe.  They are four points ahead of Partick Thistle but are the anti-form team.  Hibernian’s last win came at home to Ross County on 15 February.  At that point Hib’s were 7th on 31 points, a point behind St Johnstone in sixth and 7 behind fifth Inverness.  Since then they have only picked up three points and fallen 14 points behind St Johnstone.

Looking at form, St Mirren’s game with Hibernian this weekend could well go a long way to determining who goes down.  The less than mighty Bud’s have only picked up 7 points in the last 10 games, Hibs have only picked up 6 out of 30.  A St Mirren win would put them level on points and put even more pressure on Hibernian.  However if Hibernian win, it could just be the turning point for Butcher and Hibs.  After this weekend the pressure on Hibernian does not stop, next for them will be Hearts next Sunday, they will be hoping to take Hibs with them into the “Championship” – with St Mirren away to Partick next Friday night. 

Form also dictates that Kilmarnock are probably best placed to stay out of trouble, and may well be out of the reckoning quickly.  I also think Ross County might have enough to get themselves clear as well, but it would not surprise me to see Partick, St Mirren and Hibernian still in danger come the final day.

My prediction at the start of the season was that Hib’s would occupy the playoff place.  What I didn’t foresee was that Hibs would be seventh going into the post split fixtures, with a chance of occupying that 11th position.  For people who say that the top flight of Scottish Football is missing Rangers.  The green shoots at the New Firm, the race to avoid the playoff place, the League Cup and the upcoming Scottish Cup Final is proof that there is more to Scottish Football than the one-upmanship of the forces of evil and darkness from Glasgow.

Staggering Into View

The end of The Open golf championships and the Tour De France normally means one thing, it’s not long until the Football season starts to remind us that winter is on it’s way.  At least this summer there was no endless sagas hogging the back pages when there were other things to report.

Instead the build up to the start of the season has been bubbling along in the background – with Le Tour and the Ashes garnering headlines & plaudits.  Indeed, the only time Scottish Football seems to have broken into the news was with the merger between the Scottish League and the Scottish Premier League finally being ratified. In the finest traditions of Scottish Football thought, the ability to turn a golden opportunity into shit has not been wasted – as the new body (don’t laugh now, The Scottish Professional Football League) has appointed Neil Doncaster (above) as it’s Grand Fromage.

On the field, things may be looking up.  Scotland had their best result since beating France when they won in Zagreb in June, while last week St Johnstone eliminated Norway’s Rosenberg from the UEFA Cup.  We will see whether this represents a genuine upturn in international results, in the meantime the new league season begins this weekend.

Celtic start as huge favourites to retain the championship that they won pretty much at a canter last year.  They have however lost both Gary Hooper and Victor Wanyama, both to lower ranking English Premier League sides.  While Hooper’s goals will be missed domestically (and Wanyama’s presence in midfield will be missed more in Europe) the departure of both won’t really impact on the final destination of the Scottish Championship.  However, in the event of a big shock, who would be best placed to capitalise.

 

Champions-elect Celtic perform a guard of honour for League Cup winners St Mirren

Motherwell may have lost Ranolph and last years Scottish Player of the Year Michael Higdon, but have brought in Vigurs & Lawson as well as two familiar names to the Tartan Army – James McFadden & Stephen MacManus.  Not good enough for the championship, but good enough to finish best of the rest.  Aberdeen, Dundee United & St Johnstone have new managers coming in, so will start with squads not entirely to the liking of McInnes, McNamarra & Wright’s liking.  Whoever gets their squad to bed down quickest will finish just behind Motherwell.

Of the others, Ross County may fall down the table as a result of second season syndrome, but will be there or thereabouts for a top six place, probably fighting it out with the teams mentioned above and Inverness.  If I’m being honest though, any four of Aberdeen, Dundee United, Inverness, Kilmarnock, Ross County or St Johnstone could finish in the top six such is the much of a muchness of the middle of the top flight. With one team going down and a play off place, the places at the bottom of the league will be interesting.

Favourites to go down will be Hearts, who start on minus 15 points.  It will be such a tall order for Hearts to claw back the 15 points with such a depleted squad.  That’s not to say that Hearts predicament is impossible, just that it’s highly unlikely that they will overcome this obstacle.  Fighting it out to avoid the playoff places will be Hib’s, Partick Thistle and St Mirren.

Having lost their goal scoring talisman – Leigh Griffiths – Hibernian find themselves looking for someone to step into the void that has been left.  If last week’s Europa League tie is anything to go by, the omens are not good for the Scottish Cup finalists.  I rather suspect that Partick Thistle will find life much more difficult in the top tier of Scottish Football, though how much trouble they will find depends on how much of a promotion bounce there is. As for St Mirren, while some of last season’s League Cup winning side have moved on, key will be whether St Mirren strengthen in the key areas in defence and in defensive midfield areas.  Having said that, the fact that Paul McGowan is staying for next season will be a boost for the Bud’s – now all Lennon needs to do is to play him in his optimal position (in the playmaker position behind the striker).

For the first time in three or four years, the Scottish Football season does not start on the back foot.  However the arrival of BT Sport on the scene has reminded us firstly how far behind the English Premier League the newly merged Scottish Professional Football League is, and secondly how badly those behind the scenes have failed Scottish Football.  We may have a new league body (with names which bear an uncanny resemblance to the names given to the English Football League’s divisions) but the likes of Neil Doncaster and Stuart Regan remain at the top of our game.

In the meantime, it falls to the footballers to build on last season’s successes.  I think that Celtic will win the championship by a smaller margin than last year and will reach the group stages of the European Cup.  Picking who goes down with Hearts though is a close call, I think that Hibernian might be in for a hard season this year.  With that, let the madness commence…