Flag Day For The North

Stewart McKimmie (with Duncan Shearer) lifts the League Cup in 1995

Sunday sees the 67th Scottish League Cup Final, which for the second season in a row does not feature any of the Old Firm.  Indeed the only Old Firm representation comes with Celtic hosting this final due to the work being done to Hampden in the run up to this summer’s Commonwealth Games.  Unlike last year, the two finalists are firmly in the top half of the table as the much admired but still work in progress Aberdeen side come up against Inverness Caledonian Thistle.

Like St Mirren last year, Caley Thistle are chasing their first win in this competition.  Unlike St Mirren, this will be their first national final, having reached four semi final’s previously (three Scottish Cup semis and in this competition last year) they gained revenge of sorts over Hearts for their defeat on penalties last year by winning on penalties this year.

The strange thing about Caley Thistle getting to this final is that this is a side about to go into transition.  Their manager at the start of the season Terry Butcher left them in November, having decided he had taken them as far as he could, and took on the Hibernian job.  His successor was the former Falkirk, Hibernian and Hartlepool manager John Hughes.  Butcher’s footballing philosophy was to get the ball forward as quickly as possible, different from Hughes who believes in a passing game.  The key to Hughes success though will be the ability of his sides to score – the hallmark of all of his sides has been that they have been attractive but have been a little punchless in front of goal, exhibit one in this argument being the 2009 Scottish Cup Final.

Nine points and two places above Inverness are their opponents Aberdeen.  Currently, conventional wisdom among the Scottish Footballing commentariat dictates, the best side in the country not called Celtic.  This is their 13th final in this competition, but their first since the 2-0 defeat to the Dalgliesh led Celtic in 2000.  Indeed it will be their first final since that season’s Scottish Cup when they went down to Rangers 4-0 (beating Inverness in the 4th Round).  You need to go back to 1995 for their last victory in this competition when they beat Dundee 2-0 (above) to go with their victories in 1955/6, 1976/7, 1985/6 (Alex Ferguson’s only win in this tournament) and 1989/90.

While in recent weeks Inverness have been playing a 4-4-2, Aberdeen have options up front.  They’ve been playing 4-4-2 since they signed Adam Rooney, but are capiable of playing 4-3-3 with Pawlett & McGinn pushed up.  Indeed, while it is tempting to think of Aberdeen of a team of young turks, there is experience there with former Inverness player Barry Robson and former Dundee United midfielder Willo Flood, both of whom also played for Celtic. 

As mentioned earlier, Inverness have tended to play captain up Ritchie Foran alongside top scorer Billy MacKay.  Their biggest problem may well be their defence, which at times during last weeks Scottish Cup mauling at the hands of Dundee United looked all at sea.  They have also shipped five recently to Celtic.  How they cope with the loss, through suspension, of Warren may be key.  This is especially the case given the form Aberdeen have been in during this competition, putting five past Falkirk in the autumn and Four past St Johnstone in the semi final six weeks ago.  Worryingly for Inverness, Aberdeen have shown flashes of being able to live with Celtic, dumping them out of the Scottish Cup at Parkhead and then becoming the first team to defeat them this season.

If Aberdeen look like runaway favourites, they shouldn’t be.  They’ve not been that great when I’ve seen them against St Mirren this season, escaping with a 1-1 draw in September but winning 1-0 in a pretty awful match. If Inverness need inspiration, they can look at their 1-0 win at Pittodrie in January (above) – the last meeting between the two sides.  Aberdeen are rightly favourites, but I don’t think they will turn up and blow Inverness away.  I think if Aberdeen can get going though, they will win by 2-0.

SPL 2010/11: The Season Starts Here!

Rangers get ready to recieve the championship trophy for season 2009/10

Barring Celtic’s abortive European Cup campaign, Hibernian’s abortive UEFA Cup campaign, Motherwell’s run in the same competition and Wednesday’s defeat in Sweden, the 2010/11 football season begins in earnest on Saturday with the start of the Scottish Premier League (with apologies to the Scottish Football League who started last week).  With all of the action which has occurred already, this must be the smallest close season in living memory.

Aiming for a hat trick of championships are Rangers, who like last year have not added to their squad.  However they have lost seven of their squad, with Thompson and Boyd making the move to Middlesbrough, and Danny Wilson making the switch to Liverpool. However the transfer of Kevin Thompson is arguably the only transfer involving a key player.  Weir will be around for another year, and will be supplemented by the returning Andy Webster, and Boyd was firmly second pick for the key games Rangers played.  In Walter Smith’s last season, Rangers have the necessary experience to win the Championship.

At the other side of Glasgow, Celtic have been busy in the transfer market.  After finally confirming the appointment of Neil Lennon as Manager after his caretaker stint.  Celtic have brought in Joe Ledley from Cardiff, and Charlie Mulgrew from Aberdeen.  However they have lost the “Holy Goalie” Artur Boric.  The questions posed for Celtic are the same ones from 12 months ago; can they pull a new side together under a new coach and overhaul Rangers.  The Omens are not good for Celtic, who have sacked their previous “inexperienced” coaches (Liam Brady after 2 years, John Barnes within 6 months).  I take Rangers to win by between 4-7 points.
Elsewhere, Dundee United have pretty much kept their Scottish Cup winning team intact (save for the aforementioned Andy Webster), Hearts have rather shockingly bought in Scottish players in the shape of the former Falkirk captain Darren Barr and Kilmarnock’s Kevin Kyle, while Aberdeen have brought Paul Hartley back from exile in Bristol.  Those three teams, as well as Hibernian, should be in the running for third.

The tightest battle over recent years has been the battle to avoid the drop, with Inverness Caley dropping down on goal difference in 2009 and Falkirk loosing out by a point in May.  Inverness are back in the top flight, the first team to bounce straight back up since Hib’s flew through the First Division in 1998/99.  They might find themselves at the bottom end once again, but should see themselves safe come the end of the season.

Calderwood celebrate's Kilmarnock's survival against Falkirk

The weakest squad on paper is St Mirren’s.  Their dismissal of Gus MacPherson, is one that gathered criticism among the media, but among the supporters, the opinion was that Gus’s teams looked more and more stale as the weeks went on. In his place, St Mirren have brought in the highly rated Danny Lennon from Cowdenbeath.  The problem for many journalists is that Danny has also brought 4 players from Cowdenbeath, as well as bringing back Marc McAusland from Queen Of The South and David Van Zanten from Hamilton.  St Mirren’s survival depends on the ability of the lower league players to step up to Premier League level, which to be honest is not as big a step up as most sports writers seem to think.

Hamilton have lost the talented James McArthur, their survival depends on their much vaunted conveyor belt of talent continuing.  I suspect that this will be a difficult season for Hamilton, and for Kilmarnock, who brought in Mixu Paatelainen to replace Jimmy Calderwood as Manager.  I think that the team to go down will come from those four, and I think that once again it will be too close to call.

More than most, Scottish football needs to come out and provide a season to remember, it needs to show that it was watching the events in South Africa, and that notes were being taken about technique and attacking football.  Above all Scottish football needs to realise that for the third season on the spin, the Old Firm are vulnerable.  The Old Firm will finish in the top two positions, but a winning mentality and a bit of ruthlesness needs to be shown from the other sides before they can be taken seriously.